Description

This analysis provides a forecast of LPT prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-04-13 1.936286 2.357209 2.833249 3.409238 4.084887 4.849823 5.778781
2025-04-20 1.393401 1.935539 2.619147 3.534835 4.718366 6.184503 8.124430
2025-04-27 1.053238 1.639794 2.451050 3.633075 5.284957 7.481213 10.585170
2025-05-04 0.849862 1.461526 2.377399 3.809459 5.943323 8.946580 13.418295
2025-05-11 0.661635 1.250760 2.201064 3.786578 6.289800 9.995363 15.770201
2025-05-18 0.501904 1.041073 1.975708 3.634112 6.397535 10.682440 17.642027
2025-05-25 0.379011 0.861394 1.758130 3.445508 6.403156 11.190213 19.264916
2025-06-01 0.308163 0.760703 1.656079 3.429958 6.678240 12.131737 21.629034
2025-06-08 0.256674 0.685359 1.584635 3.453118 7.013909 13.192815 24.265026
2025-06-15 0.212078 0.612486 1.502338 3.438869 7.273508 14.139854 26.779580
2025-06-22 0.163893 0.516339 1.350651 3.259272 7.196049 14.482438 28.278079
2025-06-29 0.135627 0.461991 1.279006 3.231359 7.402627 15.344376 30.743717
2025-07-06 0.111239 0.411315 1.207361 3.196371 7.599967 16.224948 33.350654
2025-07-13 0.101542 0.400970 1.232602 3.384274 8.281097 18.083025 37.901237
2025-07-20 0.090010 0.381073 1.229297 3.504674 8.831687 19.733909 42.185281
2025-07-27 0.082178 0.370894 1.249815 3.685350 9.532869 21.737507 47.280415
2025-08-03 0.068826 0.336098 1.194140 3.666609 9.784056 22.852442 50.728990
2025-08-10 0.054322 0.290457 1.095629 3.519591 9.720353 23.309842 52.907868
2025-08-17 0.041885 0.246783 0.991222 3.336619 9.545463 23.511833 54.578668
2025-08-24 0.035149 0.224629 0.950031 3.321648 9.775637 24.599145 58.129975
2025-08-31 0.030127 0.208033 0.923437 3.344223 10.101680 25.921019 62.254884
2025-09-07 0.025336 0.189939 0.886802 3.330385 10.331990 27.045075 66.031717
2025-09-14 0.019385 0.161462 0.803251 3.155767 10.117008 27.134465 67.587999